Citizen McCain:
Reflections on the FL Primary
Politics — By Joe Carter on January 30, 2008 at 12:27 am John McCain — McCain didn’t just win Florida — he won the GOP nomination. Though many pundits, bloggers, and radio hosts will spend the next week trying to deny this obvious fact, it is the reality that we must face. Huckabee was critically wounded in South Carolina. Florida has finished off Giuliani. And Romney’s chances have also been crushed, though he thinks he is rich enough to buy an alternative reality. However, Romney can’t overcome the fact that when he faced McCain in NH, SC, and FL he was thrashed every time.
We have to give credit where its due. Team McCain has found a way to carry their candidate to victory. McCain’s campaign manager released the Path to the Nomination video back in December. At the time it seemed overly optimistic. Today, it appears prescient.
I’ll admit that I’m troubled by the idea of a McCain presidency. He still seems to me to be a cross between Conan and Charles Foster Kane: A fascinatingly flawed and haunted man whose main goal in life is to crush his enemies and see them driven before him.
Still, as John Mark Reynolds notes, “The good news is that unlike any Democrat running McCain is pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, against torture, and for winning the War on Terror.” True enough. Also, having McCain as the nominee really ticks off all the people that unfairly trashed Huckabee (Rush, Mark Levin, et. al.). It may not be enough to ease my discomfort over McCain, but it nevertheless brings me great pleasure.
Mitt Romney — One of the reasons that McCain will be the nominee is because the establishment tried to sell Mitt Romney as the “full-spectrum conservative” candidate. Apparently, the pro-Romney pundits thought we GOP voters are either extremely gullible or, more likely, that we have very short memories.
As primary voters in IA, NH, and FL discovered, Romney has previously supported many liberal positions, including abortion rights, the federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), a ban on “assault weapons”, government mandated health insurance, etc., ad naseum. Holding these positions today, however, would make him unelectable so he had to discard his deeply held pro-choice, pro-gay principles in favor of ones more palatable to the GOP base.
While it’s difficult to discern when the
When Romney became a conservative he was 56 years old (4 years older than Mike Huckabee is today). The year Romney became a conservative we invaded Iraq and captured Saddam Hussein. The year Romney became a conservative Ruben Studdard won American Idol, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won the Oscar for Best Picture, and Queer Eye for the Straight Guy premiered on Bravo. The year Romney became a conservative is the year I started this blog.
Think about that for a moment. Not only have people being reading blogs longer than Romney has been a conservative but people have been reading this blog longer than Romney has been a conservative.
Personally, I prefer to have a President who has spent a bit more time becoming familiar with conservative arguments, principles, traditions, and values. I suspect that outside of the elite pundit class, most conservatives feel the same. Romney may have been endorsed by National Review. But most conservative prefer to endorse a candidate who has actually read National Review.
Rudy Giuliani — Back in March I wrote about Irrational Exuberance and the Rudy Bubble:
On November 13, 1998, a little-known, privately-owned web portal called TheGlobe.com went public. Although the company had never made a profit and had a net loss of $11.5 million for the previous nine-month period, the stock jumped to $97. The first day the stock price rose 606%, setting a record for an initial public offering. In order to buy $1 of the company’s earnings—not profit, just earnings—investors were willing to pay roughly $1,388. (In comparison, people now pay around $47 for $1 of Google’s earnings.)
Eventually investors came to their senses and priced the company at its true value. Today you can buy a share of stock in TheGlobe.com for 4 cents.
How could otherwise sane investors pay so much for a company that was worth almost nothing? The answer is that they convinced themselves that the rules had changed. The internet had ushered in the “new economy” making the old valuations and metrics obsolete. Companies no longer had to make a profit in order to be worth billions; they just had to have a website.
It’s easy to look back on that era and scoff at such absurd behavior. But while we may not be so easily fooled by internet stocks the stock in political candidates is prone to bouts of “irrational exuberance.” Consider, for example, how otherwise serious people believe that Rudy Giuliani can actually be elected president. Many people have convinced themselves that the rules have changed and that social conservatives will discard their principles and embrace a candidate who has never held national office because of his imaginary credibility on “national security.”
In Florida, sanity prevailed and the Rudy bubble popped.
Mike Huckabee — The Huckabee campaign has taught us two lesson about election finances: (1) Having the most money doesn’t ensure an easy path to victory, and (2) Having the least money does ensure that the path to the nomination will be nearly impossible. As John Mark Reynolds says, ” Mike Huckabee would have been a major contender with the kind of money that either Rudy or Romney spent on the race.”
Fortunately, he still has enough money to stick around and bleed votes from Romney. That won’t be enough to secure the nomination but it will help show that he is a contender for 2012.
Ron Paul — What’s in a name? Consider that Paul received 60,000+ votes in FL running as a Republican. That’s enough for a weak fifth place showing. But what if instead of running as a Republican he had garnered that many votes as a Libertarian candidate. Then the achievement would have been much more impressive. (Counter-argument: Paul could not have sparked that much interest running as a third-party candidate.)
Outlook Last week I said, “A Clinton-Obama/Obama-Clinton ticket would be unbeatable in the general election. While McCain would do slightly better than Romney, both would be crushed by the Democratic landslide.” I’d modify that somewhat. An Obama/Anyone ticket would be a disaster for McCain. An Obama/Hillary would be a tighter race, but not much better. A Hillary/Obama matchup against McCain/Huckabee would be a nail-biter. But as of now, I’d still think the Democrats would win.
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And minor details like whether or not they can survive outside the womb, and whether or not they have functioning brains. But such trivial details are clearly unimportant.
As I said, at different stages of development, but so what? If a human zygote or fetus is a human, and it is, stage of development should not have an impact on its moral worth as a member of the human race.
“He used to say that the primarys are where we are to make our voices heard. He used to say that primarys are where we vote for who we believe in. Now that Fred Thompson is out I guess that all goes out the window.”
Carter admitted that Huckabee’s candidacy was over when he lost SC. Even though he does not have a shot, Carter is supporting Huckabee in order to bleed votes from Romney and stick it to Romney supporters who said things he didn’t like. So basically a vote for Huckabee is about emoting, hurting Romney, and sour grapes.
I am not a bitter Thompson supporter. I am attempting to be a principled conservative and encouraging conservative Huckabee supporters to do the same. Bitterness is seen in Carter’s comments that I quoted above. I’ve just switched my support to the best remaining conservative candidate. Its the same thing that most conservative Rudy supporters will probably do. If I were bitter I’d be talking about voting for Thompson in order to hurt another candidate or coming up with excuses for why he didn’t win.
Where is the concern for the advancement of conservative principles? Where is the concern for keeping the GOP close to Reagan conservatism? Apparently its all about Huckabee. If Huck can’t get it then lets hurt our enemy on the way out. That’s immature and selfish.
Who is the best conservative left with a chance of winning? Mitt Romney. Compare Romney to McCain. Go with who best represents conservatism. We will get behind whoever wins so lets not start speculating about Romney not having a chance against the Dems. Things will change when its one on one.
What does voting for Huckabee accomplish now? Yes, I said that the primaries are the time to vote your principles. Yes, I’ve complained about voters switching to McCain just to jump on the front-runner bandwagon. But that was before Huckabee did so badly in FL. That was before Rudy pulled out. Now it is clearly a two man race. Fred knew to get out. Rudy knew to get out. John Edwards knew to get out. The only ones still running who do not have a chance are Huckabee and Ron Paul. Why? If you really think Huckabee has a good change at winning the nomination, vote for him. But if you admit that he does not, make a decision between Romney and McCain. Be more loyal to your principles than to your candidate if your candidate does not have a shot.
Conservative Huckabee supporters – its time to switch to Romney.
You’re right, I have to stay loyal to my principles. For that reason, I will be voting for Huckabee. I don’t see the advancement of conservative causes in either McCain or Romney and can’t, in good conscience, vote for either of them in the primary.
ucfengr:
Your grisly, horrid philosophy has laid itself bare with your statements:
If a human zygote or fetus is a human, and it is, stage of development should not have an impact on its moral worth as a member of the human race.
No, a zygote and fetus is no more a human than my finger is a “human.” To equate my finger with my whole life, with my life experiences, to say that other human beings should be forced into poverty and die because I might want to cut my fingernail, or because I equate my finger to the equal of these people is an obscenity against human life, not a statement of the sanctity of human life.
Mumon:
What defines “life” then? The ability to survive unaided? Then why can’t we kill 3 year olds? Or 90 year olds?
People are not forced into poverty or death by banning abortion. Quite simply, you’re just being hysterical or stupid by claiming so.
How many couples do you know who are unable to have children? I’ve known at least two. They were desperate to have kids. Why couldn’t the imaginary person who is “forced into poverty” simply give the child up for adoption? She could not murder her baby AND give untold happiness to a couple who are unable to have children themselves.
Is it not the height of selfishness to choose your own happiness over that of THREE or more others? Is that your “enlightened” morality, that your desires are more important than everyone else’s?
A fetus has both brainwave activity and a heart beat by 10 weeks the two basic requirements for determining if something is “alive”. Sputter all you want but abortion after that point is unarguably taking life away.
To call saving that life “grisly” is to show that you are wicked to the depths of your soul.
Woe to those that call good evil and call evil good.
DD
DaveD:
What defines “life” then? The ability to survive unaided? Then why can’t we kill 3 year olds? Or 90 year olds?
If you can’t figure out the difference between a 3 year old or a 90 year old and a zygote, you’ve got bigger problems than I can fix with a comment on a blog. Words like “psychopath” and “sociopath” come to mind.
But certainly such a lack of ability to distinguish is indeed grisly; and sets up the whole stage for the grave indifference to human life we have seen from conservatives throughout the ages.
And yes, to call conservatism “moral” is indeed an obscenity.
Jeff Wright …Carter is supporting Huckabee in order to bleed votes from Romney and stick it to Romney supporters who said things he didn’t like.
No, I’m supporting Huckabee in order to bleed votes from the most liberal GOP candidate left in the race.
I’m amazed (and appalled) by the number of people who have turned to Romney without knowing anything about him. Romney isn’t consistently pro-life – he believes it is ethical to experiment on “spare” embryos left over from fertility treatments. He also introduced government funded abortions in Mass. and ensured that pro-abortion advocates were put on the boards overseeing the program.
Romney appointed nearly as many Democrats to the judiciary as he did Republicans.
Romney is still a strong supporter of special rights for homosexuals.
He’s a faux “economic conservative” (he proposes big government bailouts and corporate welfare, he embraces individual mandates on health care, he hit McCain from the left on the Medicare prescription drug benefit, etc.). And he has no problems putting silly restrictions on the 2nd Amendment.
What evidence is there that he is a conservative? Because he says so?
Where is the concern for the advancement of conservative principles? Where
is the concern for keeping the GOP close to Reagan conservatism?
That is exactly why I cannot support Romney. He is simply not a conservative.
Conservative Huckabee supporters – its time to switch to Romney.
No problemo. I will certainly do that. On one condition. I’ll switch to voting for Romney if he wins the GOP nomination.
Your grisly, horrid philosophy
I really don’t know what is grisly or horrid about stating the scientific fact that the only difference between a human zygote and a human infant is time.
No, a zygote and fetus is no more a human than my finger is a “human.”
Really? Don’t know much about human biology, do you, mumon? Here’s the short answer; zygotes are individual human beings at a very early stage of development, yours fingers are a part of the individual human being known as mumon. Your fingers will never develop into a new infant or adult, a zygote will develop into infant, and eventually an adult.
If you can’t figure out the difference between a 3 year old or a 90 year old and a zygote
The difference is that they are at different stages of development, other than that, they as alike as different human beings can be.
the scientific fact that the only difference between a human zygote and a human infant is time.
No, the difference between a zygote and an infnant depends on the former’s external environment. A zygote can never develop into a human being without its external environment. That’s the scientific fact, and that fact makes all the difference between a human being and a zygote.
…zygotes are individual human beings …
No, that’s an abstraction of a human being, and a grisly one, and that abstraction devalues human beings precisely because human beings are not that abstraction.
It explains everything from the equating of brain dead people to people, the equating of physically dead people to people (I’ve seen that from Mr. Carter on this very blog), and the enthusiasm conservatives have for trashing the environment.
No, the difference between a zygote and an infnant depends on the former’s external environment. A zygote can never develop into a human being without its external environment.
Not sure what your point is, an infant can’t develop into a toddler without the proper external environment, nor can a toddler into an adult. That doesn’t change the fact that a zygote, an fetus, an infant, and an adult are all human beings at different stages of development.
No, that’s an abstraction of a human being, and a grisly one
You seem to be fixated on this word, “grisly”. Did you just learn it in school this week?
I may be naive, but I think a valid argument can be advanced that neither Romney, nor McCain are really conservatives. They are both arguably RINO liberals. As such, it doesn’t matter to me which one of them gets the GOP nomination.
They’ll both get my vote in the general election. And I think that either one of them will lose because of the Dem media machine.
In yesterday’s debate McCain praised O’Connor and said he would appoint Supreme Court justices like John G. Roberts Jr. and Samuel A. Alito Jr., “who have a proven record of strict interpretation of the Constitution of the United States of America.”
Now that’s what I like to hear!
Here’s CNN’s Analyst on yesterday’s GOP Debate:
January 31, 2008
Schneider: The night’s big winner: Huckabee
Posted: 07:34 AM ET
Huckabee performed well, Schneider says.
Huckabee, I think, stood out in this debate as the one who made sense, talked as ordinary people do, and rose above politics. They may have scored. He connected. And that’s a problem for Romney, who would like to become the alternative to John McCain among conservatives who oppose the Arizona senator. But he has very tough competition from Huckabee, who’s forcing people to re-think his run at a time when he was supposed to be out of the game.
But this has always been the way he’s worked: Romney uses money to stay competitive. Huckabee has debates.
I don’t think McCain made many gains – and I think he may have caused people to re-think the race. I don’t think this was his strongest night, not because he was under attack. But because he wasn’t a straight talker. He talked very much like a politician. He was making a lot of charges at Romney – some of which, like the timetable charge, seemed very questionable.
A couple of Romney’s answers were quite good, particularly on the Iraq timetables issue. I don’t think he did himself any harm. But I think the one who really helped himself was Huckabee.
All in all: Huckabee gained ground, McCain probably lost ground, and Romney didn’t help or hurt himself – although he did effectively defend himself. McCain sounded petty – and that’s not the McCain voters know and like.
But to the extent that Huckabee may have made any gains from his performance, Romney’s got bigger worries out of tonight than the Arizona senator.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/31/schneider-the-nights-big-winner-huckabee-2/
I have been trying to understand where the Huckabee supporters are coming from during this election. Here we have Huckabee cast as the conservative and Romney portrayed as the most liberal Republican candidate. This is an amazing statement and it is definitely a minority opinion. Certainly one has to import a different understanding of “conservative” into the discussion in order to come to this conclusion.
As best as I’ve been able to determine, Huckabee supporters (ironically) are determined to have the least gracious approach to Romney’s record. I, too, am uneasy with Romney’s differing positions in the past compared to the recent past and present (just as I am uneasy with the non-conservative elements of Huckabee’s record). However, the Huckabee people criticize Romney’s past positions to the point of calling him a liar. He was pro-choice, now he is pro-life. Instead of being satisfied that he has now come to the correct conclusions on this matter, Huckabee supporters continue to bring up his pro-choice past. Why continue to harp on this? The reason is they don’t really believe that he is pro-life now. They believe he changed solely in order to grab power. They are insinuating that he is a liar.
Every candidate has a problem with reconciling their past record with their current positions and promises, including Huckabee. Again, I am uncomfortable with the lack of consistency on some important issues. The more important question is where does he stand now? It would be one thing if Romney developed these positions in between the time he was governor and the time he pursued the presidency but that is not how it happened.
I know there is very little reasoning with the majority of Huckabee supporters. Romney is the sworn enemy to them. The supposed vitriol conservatives have toward McCain is nothing compared to the hatred Huckabee supporters have for Romney. It is so extreme and unfair that it actually undermines their credibility.
I know Huckabee supporters will stick with their man until the very end. As many of them I’m sure are aware, Huckabee will not win. They will split the conservative vote between Huckabee and Romney and thereby ensure that Huckabee’s buddy McCain gets the nomination. Maybe even McCain will select Huckabee as VP! They will feel good about themselves but meanwhile they will undermine the influence of the conservatism they claim Huckabee is the champion of. But at least they’ll get to stick it to Romney and the media.
Hey Joe,
McCain looks more like your kind every day. He’s more worried about losing an election than he is about losing his character and he believes if you repeat a lie over and over again it becomes truth.
Your claims on about Romney are just as silly as Huckabee’s “I’m not going negative but let me show you what I’d say if I were” Ad accusing Romney of being soft on crime because as Gov he had zero executions in a State where the death penalty is against the law. He also left out the part about Romney’s effort to legalize the death penalty as Governor.
“Romney is still a strong supporter of special rights for homosexuals”
Truth:The Governor believes all people should be treated equally in the eyes of the law, but
that no additional legal protections for sexual orientation should be added. Is this wrong?
Romney’s record:
-He pushed for an amendment to Massachusetts’ constitution to overturn the same-sex “marriages” that courts have imposed
-He testified before Congress and wrote to senators in favor of the Federal Marriage Amendment
-He ordered enforcement of a little-known 1913 law to prevent out-of-state gay couples from getting
“married” in Massachusetts and provoking a national constitutional crisis.
“He also introduced government funded abortions in Mass. and ensured that pro-abortion”
Truth: Under state law and court precedent, if the state is funding health care benefits it cannot refuse to provide abortion coverage. Gov Romney had nothing to do with funding abortions.
“Romney appointed nearly as many Democrats to the judiciary as he did Republicans.”
Truth:The State of Massachusetts appointee process uses a 21-member Judicial Nominating Committee and established a “blind” review process during which the names of candidates would be removed from their applications before recommending to the Gov.
FINALLY: The only change of position, as he’s admitted that he was wrong, was on abortion. We should welcome that kind of change. He ran on these issues in 1994! See the flyer from his platform
http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2007/05/desperate-times-call-for-desperate.html
What’s the point of pushing against this candidate who is so obviously a good man. The fruit of Romney’s life points to the same kinds of values that we so often proclaim to support. Where are the scandals in his life? Why do those who worked for him and with him speak so highly of him? Why does his family so obviously support him? Why do we fault him for being successful in life? His speech on Faith in America was exactly the kind of America we Christian claim to believe in.
If he’s such a phony, such an opportunistic, and dishonest person as you accuse him to be, why has he not engaged in the kind of dishonest smear politics we see from others? In the debates he’s shown a level of class and decency that I find refreshing. If we truly are value voters then we should see the writing on the wall if McCain is in the White House. Romney is our best shot and having a voice in this election.
David French, who is very respected in the pro life community, published the following in response to similar accusations:
http://www.evangelicalsformitt.org/massresistance/therealtruth.pdf
Mumon,
Part of your basic, flawed, argument is that a fetus can not take care of itself so its acceptable to kill them. I seem to remember you specifically making some reference to the old pro-murder argument that a fetus can not survive on its own. You’ve made it at least twice. I submit that a three year old is no more able to survive on their own than a fetus. So, if the ability to survive is a prerequisite to not be murdered for someone else’s convienence, than a toddler is well within the “allowable” zone. So are a lot of the elderly and handicapped.
You claim saving a human life is “devaluing” human life. Yet you imply that some humans can, and should, be shuffled off from this world. You just like the Nazi’s promote the killing of the undesirable.
DD
Joe, politics does not bring out the best in you; in fact I think what it has brought out in you is pretty ugly.
DaveD :
Again, I’m astounded by the degree to which you and others here are resistant to the plainly obvious. A 3 year old, if neglected, will be cared for if we as a society (takes a village, you know!) do something about it. A 3 year old is not a zygote. Because…
By your argument, whenever a limb or organ containing stem cells is removed from a body, it must be incumbent on us to use genetic expression technology to create ESM-cloned human beings, because, after all, it won’t do this on its own, right?
Ah, no of course not. There’s none of that naughty naughty sex involved in any of that…
But seriously, by defining life in ways that clearly allow the ludicrous to be defined as human, you are indeed devaluing human life.
Again, I’m astounded by the degree to which you and others here are resistant to the plainly obvious.
I’m astonished by how willfully dense you are. Nobody is arguing that a 3 year old is the same as a zygote, anymore than a 3 year old is the same as a 13 year old, but the fact is that a zygote and a 3 year old are both individual human beings.
By your argument, whenever a limb or organ containing stem cells is removed from a body, it must be incumbent on us to use genetic expression technology to create ESM-cloned human beings, because, after all, it won’t do this on its own, right?
Ah, good old mumon, when the science doesn’t agree with you, flap your arms and act outraged, oh, and toss in the occasional non sequitur.
McCain did not “thrash” Romney in ANY of the states that have voted up to now. In fact, more people voted AGAINST McCain than for him. Huckabee is having an effect on potential Romney voters. Add together the Romney-Huckabee votes and it totals more than 50% – McCain has not risen above 35% in any of these states. (In spite of his colleagues in the senate doing the old “rolling endorsements” just prior to voting days.) The 35% number should concern the Republican Party and they should get their head out of the sand! Cramming someone basically unwanted by the base down our throats just will not work. I don’t trust the Dems – but neither do I trust McCain. Isn’t it amazing that John McCain has to tout his military history and POW status rather than his achievements this past 25 years in the Senate? If he is honest, he will run on McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kenndy, McCain-Liberman and the wonderful gang of 14! But he knows he can’t. That sums it up!!
Linda
St. helens, OR
God is the God of miracles. He does not support men who believe themselves to be god, nor does he support men who will not stand 100% of the time for His ways. He will lift up Huckabee, if we Christians pray, humble ourselves, and seek His face rather than polls and media etc. for direction. Pray – Huckabee was brought forth by God for such a time as this.
I think you underestimate the amount of Clinton fatigue in the country.
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God is the God of miracles. He does not support men who believe themselves to be god, nor does he support men who will not stand 100% of the time for His ways. He will lift up Huckabee, if we Christians pray, humble ourselves, and seek His face rather than polls and media etc. for direction.
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